The DVD Is Dying. Hollywood's Plan? Do Nothing And Cede Ground To File Sharing

[p2p rules]

David Pogue, NY Times columnist and known copyright infringer, has a new post up over at the Scientific American discussing piracy; more specifically, Hollywood's insistence on driving people to piracy with its lack of digital offerings and a distribution system that depends heavily on artificial limitations.

The first issue plaguing Hollywood's thinking? The DVD is dead and no one in control has realized it. The future lies in streaming movies, not plastic discs. It took the recording industry several years to realize the fact that its customers were not nearly as attached to its physical products as it was. Add to that the fact that many people prize convenience over ownership and it's clear that trying to steer people toward purchasing all of their entertainment isn't the way to go.

     Netflix's CEO says, “We expect DVD subscribers to decline steadily every quarter, forever.” The latest laptops don't even come with DVD slots. So where are film enthusiasts suppose to rent their flicks? Online, of course.

    Streaming movies offers instant gratification: no waiting, no driving—plus great portability: you can watch on gadgets too small for a DVD drive, like phones, tablets and superthin laptops.

techdirt

[MinersLantern]

I would not agree that streaming is the path to the future.
Its fine if you have blistering fast fiberoptic connections and the fastest computer available.
DVDs are stilll very popular. To find that out, go visit a Walgreens store during the early evening and observe just how many people are standing in line outside in front of the store to rent from the RedBox thing.

The next sexy piece of plastic is going to be BluRay.

Sure, expensive now, prices are dropping as they always do with technology.

Prolly sooner than we think, BluRay will be just another cheap piece of plastic to rent, which happens to have the storage capacity to handle true digital content. The only drawback to DVDs is that DVD can handle only 4 Gigs of data. Thats fine for standard def video with dolby 5.1 . If you want top quality video with dolby 7.1, that involves much larger files than any DVD can hold and good luck if its thought that a monster sized file like that can be transmitted over your internet connection, unless its a very expensive internet connection.

Technology marches on.

[Bluey_412]

USB sticks...

I think i got a 64Mb one still layin about, all the way up to 32Gb. surely bigger is coming

smaller than any plastic disc...

[White Stripes]

The only drawback to DVDs is that DVD can handle only 4 Gigs of data.

8 gigs... you forgot dual layer...

and good luck if its thought that a monster sized file like that can be transmitted over your internet connection, unless its a very expensive internet connection.

those of us still stuck with dialup cant even attempt to stream-rent a movie...

USB sticks...

I think i got a 64Mb one still layin about, all the way up to 32Gb. surely bigger is coming

smaller than any plastic disc...

cant DRM them (and which filesystem do you want? fat32 only holds a max 4gig per file... NTFS costs to use and windows doesnt understand ext2/3 )... but it would be nice... read only (so no accidental delete) usb keys with movies... dont have to worry about scratches either...

the plastic discs are also a lot easier and cheaper to mass produce

and overall i dont think movie collectors are going anywhere... 'stream only' is not the future... the original divx that required a payment each time you wanted to watch flopped for this reason...

[Trestor]

There was a time when people said that TV would kill radio. It obviously didn't happen, but radio business did change to survive in the new environment. Downloadable/stream shows will always be wanted, but (in my opinion) so will hard copy shows (and hard copy music, for that matter).

Personally, while I will watch downloadable/stream shows for their convenience, if I like the show enough to want to watch it again I'll buy a hard copy, in part because I don't want to have to pay every time I want to re-watch something, and in part because I don't want to beholden to a distributor who might decide to take down a show or charge more to see it.

[Cobra]

As Trestor put it, the DVD will be no more dead than radio--though it will eventually take a different form--unless the movie industry decides that they aren't making enough money and want to cut out one of their means of revenue.

Plenty of people still want that physical item that they can hold and transport. People download MP3s and put them on their iPods. People download pictures and books and save them to their computer and smart phones. Likewise, many people (myself being one as an avid DVD collector who is currently out of shelf space) want to keep a physical copy of the movie for a number of reasons. Some want to watch a movie again without paying twice, and others just want it there jut in case for availability.

The one big difference is there is currently no legal way to download and store a movie (even if purchased) such that it can be used at another time offline like can be done with MP3s, books, etc. As long as that is the case, people will still demand the availability of the physical medium.